Question
(Hale TV Production) Hale TV Production is considering producing a pilot for a comedy series in the hope of selling it to a major television
(Hale TV Production) Hale TV Production is considering producing a pilot for a comedy series in the hope of selling it to a major television network. The network may decide to reject the series, but it may also decide to purchase the rights to the series for either one or two years. At this point in time, Hale may either produce the pilot and wait for the network's decision or transfer the rights for the pilot and series to a competitor for $100,000. Hale's decision alternatives and profits (in $1,000) are as follows:
State | ||||
Decision | Reject (R) | One year (O) | Two years (T) | |
Produce pilot (Produce) | -100 | 50 | 150 | |
Sell to competitor (Sell) | 100 | 100 | 100 |
The probabilities of the states areP(R) = 0.2,P(O) = 0.3, andP(T) = 0.5. For a consulting fee of 5 (or $5,000), an agency offers to review the plans for the comedy series and indicate the overall chance of a favorable network reaction to the series. Assume that the agency review results in a favorable (f) or an unfavorable (u) review. Should Hale purchase the consulting service at the cost of 5 (or $5,000)? To answer this question, the marginal and posterior probabilities are calculated below:
P(f) = 0.69,P(u) = 0.31
P(R|f) = 0.09,P(O|f) = 0.26,P(T|f) = 0.65
P(R|u) = 0.45,P(O|u) = 0.39,P(T|u) = 0.16
Construct the original and flipped decision trees with the expected value of each node attached.(Hint: The marginal and posterior probabilities are already given above. You do not need to calculate them.)
(Hale TV Production) In theflipped decision tree,
(a) the expected value of node 2 is ___ and [Answer format: one decimal place]
(b) the expected value of node 3 is ___. [Answer format: integer]
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