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Haley TV Productions is considering producing a pilot for a comedy series in the hope of selling to a major television network. The network may

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Haley TV Productions is considering producing a pilot for a comedy series in the hope of selling to a major television network. The network may decide to reject the series, but it may also decide to purchase the rights to the series for either one or two years. At this point in time, ale may either produce the pilot and wait for the network's decision or transfer the rights for the pilot and series to a competite for $100,000 Male's decision tematives and profits in thousands of dollars) are as follows: State of Nature Decision Alternative Reject 1 Year 2 Years, Produce pilot, -100 50 150 Sell to competitor, 100 100 100 The probabilities for the states of nature are Py) - 0.1878, ) - 03210, and PS) - 04912. For a consulting fee of $5,000, an agency will review the plans for the comedy series and indicate the overall chances of a favor ble network reaction to the series Asume that the agency review will result in a favorable (or an unfavorable (U) review and that the following probabilities are relevant -0.69 RU) - 0.31 , 0.02 PC-03 P1)-044 EU) - 0.45 PCs, -0.39 RE) 0.16 (a) Construct a decision tree for this problem. (Enter your answers in thousands of dollars.) Decision Tree Description $1 d, 52 3 51 Agency S1 52 1 III III III III II 1 d 10 No Agency d 11 S1 52 53 (b) What is the recommended decision If the agency opinion is not used? produce pilot, de sell to competitor, de What is the expected value (In thousands of dollars)? thousand dollars (c) What is the expected value of perfect information (in thousands of dollars)? thousand dollars (d) What is Hale's optimal decision strategy assuming the agency's Information is used? If favorable, Select. If unfavorable, --Select- (e) What is the expected value (in thousands of dollars) of the agency's Information? (Round your answer to two decimal places.) thousand dollars Is the agency's information worth the $5,000 fee? Yes O No What is the maximum that Hale should be willing to pay (in thousands of dollars) for the information? (Round your answer to two decimal places.) thousand dollars (9) What is the recommended decision? O Agency, If unfavorable, sell to competitor Agency; if favorable, produce the pilot No agency, sell to competitor No agency: produce the pilot

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