Question
Harlan Properties is contemplating investing in development of a net-zero community in Rhode Island. The development plan would be to first purchase the large plot
Harlan Properties is contemplating investing in development of a net-zero community in Rhode Island. The development plan would be to first purchase the large plot of land near the coast and ultimately build on it. The potential land area is currently zoned for residential single-family housing, but Harlan is planning to apply for re-zoning. The decision on what to build on the land will depend on whether re-zoning is or is not approved. Harlan's decision on whether or not to purchase the land will depend on the following costs, options, and probabilities:
The land costs $2 million. If Harlan decides to purchase the land, they will submit an application for rezoning. There is a 50% possibility that the rezoning will be approved. If the rezoning is approved, there will be an additional cost of $1.5 million dollars for new roads, water supply, sewage, gas, and electric.
If the rezoning is approved, Harlan will need to decide whether to build a shopping center or an apartment complex with 1,800 units. If the shopping center is selected, there is a 60% chance that they will be able to sell the shopping center to a large department store chain for $5 million over her construction cost. There is a 40% chance that instead, they will sell it to private equity company for $6 million over the construction cost. On the other hand, instead of the shopping center, they can build the apartment complex with 1,800 units. If the apartments are built, there is a 70% chance that the apartments can be sold to a real estate investment corporation for $3,500 each over construction cost and a 30% that they can be sold for only $2,500 each above the construction cost.
If the land is not rezoned, Harlan will comply with the existing zoning requirements and build 100 single-family homes, where they will make $5,000 profit above construction cost on each one.
Harlan faces a dilemma. Should they by the land? If they buy the land and rezoning is approved, what should they do with the land? Help Harlan by analyzing the problem.
Develop a decision tree for this problem and determine the optimal decision strategy. USE THE DRAWING TOOLS IN WORD OR POWERPOINT (OR EXCEL ADD-IN TREEPLAN), CREATEe AND SOLVE THE DECISION TREE. SAVE THE FILE AND UPLOAD IT HERE. YOU MUST NOT ONLY CREATE AND SOLVE THE DECISION TREE, YOU MUST ALSO PROVIDE A ONE- OR TWO-SENTENCE COMPLETE RECOMMENDATION FOR THIS COMPLEX DECISION.
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