he manager of a travel agency has been using a seasonally adjusted forecast to predict demand for packaged tours. The actual and predicted values are as follows:

Period Demand Predicted

$1132113$

$2192200$

$3152150$

$487102$

$58280$

$6127135$

$7122128$

$8133124$

$998109$

$10153150$

$1110894$

$129380$

$13128140$

$14138128$

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a$.$ Compute MAD for the fifth period, then update it period by period using exponential smoothing with $\backslash$alpha $=\mathrm{.}05.($Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to $3$ decimal places.$)$

b$.$ Compute a tracking signal for periods $5$ through $14$ using the initial and updated MADs. $($Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign. Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to $3$ decimal places.$)$