Question
Hello, I have a couple of questions for my Statistics and Probability class. I am struggling on a couple and I would really appreciate if
Hello, I have a couple of questions for my Statistics and Probability class. I am struggling on a couple and I would really appreciate if someone can please help me with them and explain them. Thank you so much!
Use the information presented in Case One, the Four Corners Corporation in Chapter 16 (Simulation).The report should be presented as you would a formal business report to management.Include appropriate numbers within the report, but leave any backup tables or spreadsheets to appendices which are clearly labeled and referred to in the report.Formats should be clear - for example, do not have tables extending from one page to the next.Your report should include, but not be limited to, answers to the following questions.
1.Without considering the random variability in growth rates, extend the worksheet given to 20 years.Confirm that by using the constant annual salary growth rate and the constant annual portfolio growth rate, Tom can expect to have a 20-year portfolio of $772,722. What would Tom's annual investment rate have to increase to in order for his portfolio to reach a 20-year goal of $1,000,000?
2.Incorporate the random variability of the annual salary growth rate and the annual portfolio growth rate into a simulation model. Salary growth is assumed to follow a uniform distribution between 0% and 10%. (Note: the text case says between 0% and 5%.Use a uniform distribution between 0% and 10%.) Portfolio growth is assumed to follow a normal distribution with mean 10% and standard deviation 5%.Assume further an annual investment rate of 9%.Using the following random numbers generate values for salary and portfolio growth and perform a 20-year simulation. (Note: salary growth is not needed for the first year.)
What is the portfolio value after 20 years?
Salary growth portfolio growth
0.330
0.559
0.043
0.903
0.501
0.310
0.885
0.945
0.380
0.287
0.533
0.233
0.115
0.022
0.520
0.013
0.122
0.195
0.144
0.411
0.321
0.154
0.696
0.138
0.516
0.884
0.266
0.130
0.456
0.175
0.053
0.044
0.305
0.707
0.912
0.720
0.131
0.242
0.758
3.Generate your own random numbers and perform the 20-year simulation another 9 times.On the basis of your results for all ten simulations, answer the following:
- What percentage of the time is the $1,000,000 goal met?
- What is the mean 20-year portfolio value?
- What is the standard deviation?
- What is the maximum?
- What is the minimum?
4.What recommendation do you have for employees with a current profile similar to Tom's after seeing the impact of the uncertainty in the annual salary growth rate and the annual portfolio growth rate?
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