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Hello. I'm completely lost. I just started Prescriptive Analytics. I understand the decision rules and concepts, but the formulas were just kind of thrown at
Hello. I'm completely lost. I just started Prescriptive Analytics. I understand the decision rules and concepts, but the formulas were just kind of thrown at me. I need direction and help.
White Mountain Lodge The proprietor of the newly built White Mountain Ski and Swim Lodge has been considering purchasing or leasing several snowmobiles for the use of guests. The owner found that other financial obligations made it impossible to purchase the machines. Snowmobiles Incorporated (SI) will lease a machine for $20 a week, including any needed maintenance. According to SI, the usual rental charge to the guests of the lodge is $25 a week. Gasoline and oil are extra. Snowmobiles Incorporated only leases a machine for the full season. The proprietor of Ski and Swim, knowing that leasing an excessive number of snowmobiles might cause a net loss for the lodge, investigated the records of other resort owners. The combined experience at several other lodges was found to be: #Snowmobiles Demanded Probabilities 7 10% 8 25% 9 45% 10 20% Develop a payoff matrix to answer the problems below: 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) Determine the decision based on Maximin Determine the decision based on Maximax Determine the decision based on the expected monetary value (EMV). Determine the decision based on Minimax Regret Determine the decision based on expected opportunity loss (EOL). HINT: Be sure to answer to develop a spreadsheet that is robust and is developed in a dynamic manner. Develop formulas to make it clear which decision that would be made based on the methods described in parts 1-8. Remember, everything that is a cost should be negative (i.e. accounting format). HINT: In this problem, the decision alternatives should be the same as the states of nature (i.e. 7, 8, 9, 10). Decision alternatives represent weekly on hand inventory of snowmobiles, and states of nature represent weekly demand for snowmobiles. White Mountain Lodge Problem Information Cost of Leasing/week Rental Charge/week Value $ (20.00) $ 25.00 State of Natures Probabilities 7 10% 8 25% 9 45% 10 20% Show work below Page 1 White Mountain Lodge Page 2 \fProblem Information Values 12 12,000 Months Per Year Miles in contract Plan I II III STATE OF NATURE Probabilities Fixed Cost Per Month Cost Per Mile for First 12000 miles $ (200.00) $ (0.095) $ (300.00) $ (0.061) $ (150.00) $ (0.100) 10,000 10% 15,000 10% Show $ $ $ Cost Per Mile After 12000 miles (0.095) (0.050) (0.200) 20,000 20% Show work below 25,000 30% 30,000 30% \fInsurance Fully Insure Paritally Insure Self-Insure STATE OF NATURE Probabilities Cost (in $1000s) $ (45.00) $ (25.00) $ - Deductible (in $1000s) $ $ (35.00) $ (1,000.00) $ $ 24% 8% (15.00) $ (30.00) $ (45.00) $ (60.00) 10% 12% 15% Show work below $ (75.00) $ (90.00) $ (105.00) 12% 10% 9% Show work belowStep by Step Solution
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