Here is one structured methodology for scenario planning, for your own organization, or for one with which you are familiar:

Brainstorm the range of environmental factors that have the potential to impact on the performance of your organization. In the spirit of brainstorming, accept all suggestions at this point and suspend judgement as to the significance of any suggested factor.

Ask individuals to identify which factors from this list they believe to be the "key drivers" of the organization's performance over a specified time periodsay, five years.

Aggregating these individual responses, identify the five most commonly cited key drivers; these could be, for example, exchange rates, new technologies, entry by new competitors, mergers, competition for key staff, and costs and/or shortages of raw materials.

Using these key drivers as the core elements, construct three future scenarios for the organization: the most likely, an optimistic scenario, and a pessimistic one. The "most likely" scenario is constructed on the basis of the best guess as to what will happen to each of the five key drivers over the specified time frame. Note that "best guess" does not imply a casual approach; best guess can be based on sophisticated market intelligence and forecasting. The "optimistic" and "pessimistic" scenarios focus attention on how the organization might respond to each of those outcomes. The construction of the scenarios requires skill, and it is not uncommon for organizations to employ external consultants who are experienced in scenario development. Scenarios need to be compelling and plausible narratives, even if they are unlikely to happen. This is necessary if they are to form the basis of discussion concerning the organization's response to those three possible futures.

Finally, outline the different organizational change agendas that will be required to deal with each of those three possible futures.