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Hi! I did a cash flow forecast here for XOM but I don't think I got it correct. Revenue growth seems aggressive and the COS

Hi! I did a cash flow forecast here for XOM but I don't think I got it correct. Revenue growth seems aggressive and the COS and OPEX seem low.

image text in transcribed Income Statement Revenues and other income Sales and other operating revenue Income from equity affiliates Other income Total revenues and other income Costs and other deductions Crude oil and product purchases Production and manufacturing expenses Selling, general and administrative expenses Depreciation and depletion Exploration expenses, including dry holes Interest expense Sales-based taxes Other taxes and duties Total costs and other deductions Income before income taxes Income taxes Net income including noncontrolling interests Net income attributable to noncontrolling interests Net income attributable to ExxonMobil Earnings per common share (dollars) Earnings per common share - assuming dilution (dollars) Balance Sheet as of Current assets Cash and cash equivalents Cash and cash equivalents - restricted Notes and accounts receivable, less estimated doubtful amounts Inventories Crude oil, products and merchandise Materials and supplies Other current assets Total current assets Investments, advances and long-term receivables 2015 $ 259,488 7,644 1,750 268,882 130,003 35,587 11,501 18,048 1,523 311 22,678 27,265 246,916 21,966 5,415 16,551 401 $ 16,150 $ 3.85 $ 3.85 2015 $ 3,705 19,875 12,037 4,208 2,798 42,623 34,245 Property, plant and equipment, at cost, less accumulated depreciation and depletion 251,605 Other assets, including intangibles, net Total assets Current liabilities Notes and loans payable 8,285 336,758 18,762 Accounts payable and accrued liabilities Income taxes payable Total current liabilities Long-term debt Postretirement benefits reserves Deferred income tax liabilities Long-term obligations to equity companies Other long-term obligations Total liabilities Commitments and contingencies (Note 16) Equity Common stock without par value (9,000 million shares authorized, 8,019 million shares issued) 32,412 2,802 53,976 19,925 22,647 36,818 5,417 21,165 $ 159,948 Earnings reinvested Accumulated other comprehensive income Common stock held in treasury (3,863 million shares in 2015 and 3,818 million shares in 2014) 412,444 (23,511) (229,734) ExxonMobil share of equity Noncontrolling interests Total equity Total liabilities and equity $ 11,612 170,811 5,999 176,810 $ 336,758 Financial Statement Forecasting Assumptions Short term interest rate 15% Long-term interest rate 5% growth Income Statement Sales Cost of Sales Gross Profit SG&A EBIT (or Operating Income) Interest EBT Taxes (35%) Net income Dividends (50% POR) Add. to retain. earnings Balance Sheet as of Assets Cash and securities Short Term Investments Accounts receivable Inventories Total current assets 2015 259488.00 7644.15 251843.85 11501.00 240342.85 5718.90 234623.95 82118.38 152505.57 76252.78 76252.78 12/31/2015 3705.00 19875.00 23580.00 Net fixed assets Total assets Liabilities & Equity Accounts payable Accruals Notes payable Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred Stock Common stock (50M shares @ $1) Additional Paid-In Capital Cumulative Retained earnings Total equity 23580.00 18762.00 32412.00 2802.00 53976.00 105972.00 159948.00 412444.00 -218122.00 5999.00 -23511.00 176810.00 10% 2016E growth 25% 2017E growth 15% 2018E Total liab. & equity AFN (or ECR) 336758.00 -313178.00 Financial Statement Forecasting Assumptions Short term interest rate 15.0% Long-term interest rate 5.0% Inflation Rate 2.5% growth Income Statement Sales Cost of Sales COS as a % of Sales Gross Profit Gros Profit Margin SG&A SG&A as % EBIT (or Operating Income) Interest Expense EBT Taxes @ Net income Dividends (50% POR) Add. to retain. earnings Balance Sheet Assets Cash and securities Short Term Investments Accounts receivable Inventories Total current assets 38% Liabilities & Equity Accounts payable Accruals Notes payable Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred Stock Common stock (50M shares @ $1) Additional Paid-In Capital growth 2016E 259488.00 7644.15 3% 251843.85 97% 11501.00 4.4% 240342.85 5718.90 234623.95 89157.10 145466.85 72733.42 72733.42 10% 2017P 285436.80 8408.57 3% 277028.24 97% 11788.53 4.1% 265239.71 30.80 265208.91 100779.39 164429.52 82214.76 82214.76 25% 2018P 356796.00 10510.71 3% 346285.29 97% 12083.24 3.4% 334202.06 26.00 334176.06 126986.90 207189.15 103594.58 103594.58 15% 2019P 410315.40 12087.31 3% 398228.09 97% 12385.32 3.0% 385842.77 26.00 385816.77 146610.37 239206.40 119603.20 119603.20 2016 2017 2018 2019.0 3705.00 4075.50 19875.00 0.00 23580.00 21862.50 0.00 25938.00 4483.05 22.65 24048.75 0.00 28554.45 4931.36 94.80 26453.63 0.00 31479.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 23580.00 25938.00 28554.45 31479.78 18762.00 32412.00 2802.00 53976.00 105972.00 159948.00 20638.20 35653.20 32.01 56323.41 520.00 56843.41 22702.02 39218.52 24972.22 43140.37 61920.54 520.00 62440.54 68112.59 520.00 68632.59 412444.00 -218122.00 5999.00 100.00 50.00 150.00 100.00 50.00 150.00 100.00 50.00 150.00 Net fixed assets Total assets growth Cumulative Retained earnings Total equity -23511.00 176810.00 58703.76 59003.76 162298.34 162598.34 281901.54 282201.54 Total liab. & equity 336758.00 115847.17 225038.88 350834.13 AFN (additional funds needed) -313178.00 -89909.17 -196484.43 -319354.35

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