Historical demand for Peeps is as displayed in the table.

Month Demand

January 11

February 18

March 31

April 39

May 44

June 53

July 67

August 82

September 96

Develop forecasts from June through October using these techniques: moving average of two period, simple exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.8, and Holt's method with alpha=0.2 and beta=0.1. For the exponential smoothing model assume that the forecast for May is the actual demand for May. For Holt's model, the level and trend for May are assumed to be 44 and 12. Judge which forecast method is the best based on MAD