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How did you get 89.85%? Cn you please elaborate on the decision tree clearly please Copy code Playfor$3000Lose$3000Playagainfor$50001Win$1,000,000Breakeven/2 This solution was written by a subject
How did you get 89.85%? Cn you please elaborate on the decision tree clearly please
Copy code Playfor$3000Lose$3000Playagainfor$50001Win$1,000,000Breakeven/2 This solution was written by a subject matter expert It's designed to help students like you learn core concepts. Step-by-step Step 1/1 The answer is shown in the below. Please refer the below image for the detailed solution. 1. To determine whether you should play at all based on expected monetary value (EMV), we need to calculate the EMV for each decision option. EMV = Probability of outcome Monetary value of outcome First, we'll calculate the EMV for the first decision option, which is to play for $3000. - Probability of winning $1,000,000:0.15% - Monetary value of winning $1,000,000:$1,000,000$3000=$997,000 - EMV =0.0015$997,000=$1,496.50 - Probability of breaking even: 10% - Monetary value of breaking even: \$o - EMV=0.1$0=$0 - Probability of losing. 89.85% - Monetary value of losing: $3000 - EMV=0.8985$3000=$2695.50 Overall EMV for the first decision option: $1,496.50+$0$2695.50=$1199 Since the EMV is negative, it is not worth playing for $3000. 2. If you don't win at all on the first try, you should not try again because the EMV for the second decision option is also negative. - Probability of winning $100,000:3% - Monetary value of winning $100,000:$100,000 - $5000=$95,000 EMV=0.03$95,000=$2850 - Probability of winning $7500:60% - Monetary value of winning $7500:$7500$5000=$2500 - EMV=0.6$2500=$1500 - Probability of losing: 37% - Monetary value of losing: $5000 - EMV =0.37$5000=$1850 Overall EMV for the second decision option: $2850+$1500$1850=$1000 3. If you play and win your money back on the first try, you should not try again because the EMV for the second decision option is negative. 4. Decision treeStep by Step Solution
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