Hoylake Rescue Squad Probability of Time between calls P(x) 0.05 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.05 1 Cumulative (lower Time bound) between calls 0 1 0.05 2 0.15 3 0.45 4 0.75 5 0.95 6 EV = Average Time = Simulation RN Time Cumulative between calls clock Petroco service Simulation Probability 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.1 1 a. Avg Arrival time b. Avg. arrival time Compare a. and b. Cumulative 0 0.25 0.55 0.9 Time between arrival (min) 1 2 3 4 Counts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 RN Time between calls RN Time between calls Cumulative clock Dynaco Manufacturing Probability breakdown per week P(x) 0.05 0.15 0.2 0.3 0.25 0.05 1 Cumulative 0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.65 0.95 Simulated avg. breakdown Average breakdowns = Breakdown 0 1 2 3 4 5 Simulation Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 RN Breakdowns Sun Visor or Umbrella? Simulation P(x) 0.3 Cumulative 0 Sun Visor -500 Week 1 0.15 0.3 -200 2 0.55 0.45 1500 3 1 P(x) 0.3 0.15 0.55 1 4 5 Cumulative 0 0.3 0.45 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Umbrella 2000 0 -900 Average RN SunVisor ($) RN Umbrella ($) Decision Sun visors Rain 0.3 ($500) Overcast 0.15 ($200) Umbrellas 2,000 Weather Conditions Sunshine 0.55 $1,500 0 a. Ans: -900 Compute the expected value for each decision and select the best one. Sun Visor Umbrella $645 $105.00 Dynaco Manufacturing Table from P3 Repair Time P(x) 0.25 0.55 0.2 1 Simulation Cumulative 0 0.3 0.8 Simulated avg. repair time Repair (hrs) 1 2 3 Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Breakdown RN Breakdown # RN Repair time/breakdown Repair Time/week P(x) 0.05 0.15 0.2 0.3 0.25 0.05 Average repair time Cumulative 0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.65 0.95 Breakdown 0 1 2 3 4 5