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The Fallacy of Median Home Prices With the real estate market continuing to retreat from its peak a few years ago, let's take a look at what's ahead  or likely  for the next five years. Of course, everyone wants to know if the housing market is just in a brief contraction period, or if it is headed for a more prolonged period of depressed home values. At present, home prices have for the most part remained stable in many areas of the country, but those figures might be deceptive. Builders are luring buyers with add-ons and incentives to entice buyers into signing on the dotted line. real estate market For example, if a builder tosses in another garage, a solarium, or a finished basement or if the builder agrees to pay the first year's property taxes  those incentives are not reflected in the average home price that the government keeps track of. Therefore, there is no way at present to record, and therefore reflect, how those builder incentives are holding up. You can't, therefore, just look at median home prices sales and say that the market is firm or steady. Because of that "builder bias," the median home values  which actually might be falling  are not reflected in regional or national statistics. What Should You Do? At this point, there's no clear direction you should take, unless you want to stay in this for the long haul. Some markets will do better than others, but if you have invested in a second or third or fourth home purely on speculation, you might want to consider limiting your exposure to risk. Divest, Divest, and Divest It used to be that the three tenets of real estate were location, location, and location. That no longer is true. By divest, we mean divesting your interest in those areas that are at greatest risk for contraction, such as certain areas in the West. It's Always Hot Somewhere Of course, areas with limited land are going to be the ones to ride out this storm the best. There will always be markets, particularly those such as Hawaii and San Francisco, which can ride out a downward ripple  or even a wave  in the housing market. Get Off the Sidelines Standing on the sidelines is great for football, but not for investing. There's nothing wrong with buying low in a market that has dramatically cooled off. Just don't expect to get a sharp return on investment, as there was during the early part of this century. The rebound will not be dramatic, but it will be prolonged, and you will make money in the long run. Just be patient. The Global Outlook Oil prices continue their roller coaster ride. The past six months saw a steep decline in the price of light sweet crude, but recent tensions in Africa and South America in particular have roiled the markets once again. Still, today with most of the world's infrastructure tied into fossil fuels, it has been difficult to dislodge the nation's dependence on fossil fuels. Biofuels, such as ethanol, continue to gain greater market share, but there is a flip side to those gains. As the demand for corn increases, so does the price of corn to feed not only the buying public, but also for the cattle rancher. Expect to see increases in the price of beef. The same is true for any product that relies on corn syrup as an ingredient  and there are many. If you want to think long term, utilities will start to attract interest during the third decade  around 2020  as more electric vehicles hit the market. All those vehicles will be tapping into the grid, and someone has to meet the growing demand for the electricity needed to recharge those vehicles. This might also be a good time to invest in startup companies that sell ancillary equipment to recharge batteries as well as those companies that make batteries both domestically and abroad.

The Ziller Financial Group Journal Home Financials Real Estate Commodities Stocks Bonds How-To Contact Us What Should You Do? The Fallacy of Median At this point, there's no clear direction The Global Outlook Home Prices you should take, unless you want to stay in this for the long haul. Some markets Oil prices continue their roller coaster With the real estate market continuing will do better than others, but if you have ride. The past six months saw a steep to retreat from its peak a few years ago, invested in a second or third or fourth decline in the price of light sweet crude, let's take a look at what's ahead - or likely home purely on speculation, you might but recent tensions in Africa and South - for the next five years. Of course, want to consider limiting your exposure America in particular have roiled the to risk. markets once again. everyone wants to know if the housing market is just in a brief contraction period, or if it is headed for a more Divest, Divest, and Divest Still, today with most of the world's prolonged period of depressed home It used to be that the three tenets of real infrastructure tied into fossil fuels, it has values. estate were location, location, and been difficult to dislodge the nation's At present, home prices have for the location. That no longer is true. By divest, dependence on fossil fuels. Biofuels, such most part remained stable in many areas we mean divesting your interest in those as ethanol, continue to gain greater of the country, but those figures might be areas that are at greatest risk for market share, but there is a flip side to deceptive. Builders are luring buyers with contraction, such as certain areas in the those gains. As the demand for corn add-ons and incentives to entice buyers West. increases, so does the price of corn to feed not only the buying public, but also for into signing on the dotted line. For example, if a It's Always Hot Somewhere the cattle rancher. Expect to see increases builder tosses Of course, areas with limited land are in the price of beef. The same is true for in another going to be the ones to ride out this storm any product that relies on corn syrup as garage, a the best. There will always be markets, an ingredient - and there are many. solarium, or particularly those such as Hawaii and San a finished Francisco, which can ride out a downward If you want to think long term, utilities basement or ripple - or even a wave - in the housing will start to attract interest during the if the builder market. third decade - around 2020 - as more electric vehicles hit the market. All those agrees to pay the first year's property taxes those Get Off the Sidelines vehicles will be tapping into the grid, and incentives are not reflected in the average Standing on the sidelines is great for someone has to meet the growing demand for the electricity needed to recharge home price that the government keeps football, but not for investing. There's those vehicles. This might also be a good track of. nothing wrong with buying low in a Therefore, there is no way at present to time to invest in startup companies that market that has dramatically cooled off. record, and therefore reflect, how those sell ancillary equipment to recharge Just don't expect to get a sharp return on builder incentives are holding up. You batteries as well as those companies that investment, as there was during the early make batteries both domestically and can't, therefore, just look at median home part of this century. The rebound will not abroad. prices sales and say that the market is be dramatic, but it will be prolonged, and firm or steady. Because of that "builder you will make money in the long run. Just bias," the median home values which be patient. actually might be falling - are not reflected in regional or national statistics. The Ziller Financial Group * 2100 Fountain Street * Chicago, IL 34599 * 555-345-9888 Privacy Rights How-To Advertise Subscribe to Paper Jobs