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I am trying to build an econometric model to predict the evolution of the price of natural gas in the short term based on the

I am trying to build an econometric model to predict the evolution of the price of natural gas in the short term based on the variables present in the attached file.

With:

prix = price of natural gas

prix_petrole = oil price

Temperature = Temperature anomalies

Reserves = reserves

I have to detail the commands used on Stata and comment each of my approach and results obtained. When I do the descriptive analysis, the variable "Reserves" is not stationnary. To transform this variable into a stationary variable, I tried to create another variable and make a first difference but I obtained a variable without observations. Can you help me please?

image text in transcribed
Date Prix_gaz TTF ($/mmbtu) Prix_petrole ($/bbl) Temperature (C) Reserves (TWh) 01-2011 9,61 92,69 -0,90 405,31 02-2011 9,36 97,91 -0,18 331,24 03-2011 9,37 108,65 -0,06 279,33 04-2011 10,36 116,24 0,01 311,91 05-2011 10,30 108,07 0,04 376,89 06-2011 10,26 105,85 0,02 448,26 07-2011 10,99 107,92 0,14 510,42 08-2011 10,81 100,49 0,11 566,00 09-2011 10,85 100,82 0,05 609,73 10-2011 11,42 99,85 0,03 630,02 11-2011 11,32 105,41 0,09 621,57 12-2011 11,53 104,23 -0,04 569,20 01-2012 11,45 107,07 -0,17 517,56 02-2012 11,12 112,69 -0,18 387,18 03-2012 11,97 117,79 0,14 332,68 04-2012 11,42 113,67 0,05 361,70 05-2012 11,64 104,09 0,17 416,08 06-2012 11,49 90,73 0,12 496,87 07-2012 11,13 96,75 0,04 570,27 08-2012 11, 18 105,27 0,08 651,02 09-2012 11,08 106,28 0,11 716,66 10-2012 11,58 103,41 0,22 753,58 11-2012 11,83 101,17 0,20 733,36 12-2012 11,79 101, 19 -0,03 641,80 01-2013 11,87 105, 10 0,15 531,35 02-2013 11,77 107,64 0,02 393,43 03-2013 11,87 102,52 0,02 275,84 04-2013 12,88 98,85 -0,04 220,33 05-2013 12,29 99,37 0,02 285,87 06-2013 11,92 99,74 0,11 369,24 07-2013 11,60 105,26 -0,03 474,05 08-2013 11,64 108,16 0,05 581,21 09-2013 11,25 108,76 0,17 667,04 10-2013 11,37 105,43 0,05 770,38 11-2013 11,42 102,63 0,15 774,85 12-2013 11,55 105,48 0,13 676,79 01-2014 11,59 102, 10 0,13 605,86 02-2014 11,30 104,83 -0,10 504,40 03-2014 10,88 104,04 0,09 453,86 04-2014 10,73 104,87 0,11 478,07 05-2014 10,20 105,71 0,18 549,16 06-2014 9,77 108,37 0,07 636,95 07-2014 9,27 105,23 0,06 720,14 08-2014 9, 14 100,05 0,14 809,28 09-2014 9,24 95,85 0,18 870,60 10-2014 9,77 86,08 0,16 908,65 11-2014 8,90 76,99 0,05 899,33

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