I have the baseline ready.

Your company (Solar Solutions) has begun planning for the next 3 years. You have determined that there are two axes that must be addressed. One axis is demand and marketplace characteristics (external). The other is supply chain, pricing, production capacity (internal). The four quadrants from these axes create four possible conditions:

Euphoria

Sustained economic growth

Supply chain optimized

High demand

Straddling the fence

Periods of growth mixed with periods of stasis

Supply chain reliable but slow

Moderate demand

Can't sleep at night

Little or no growth

Sporadic supply chain problems

Inconsistent demand

Recession (Doom city)

Economic downturn

Supply chain interruptions

Declining demand

Catastrophic Event

Note: Please go to the Course Materials folder in the course site to access the data set of the results for the previous 10 years.

As a baseline, construct a time series forecast. Then for each condition, manipulate the variable (s) that would be affected. For example, to address economic growth, you might change the slope value in the regression analysis.You might run a correlation between price and demand or temperature and demand to see whether the relationship is statistically significant. If so, you might consider a catastrophic event such as a drastic change in weather patterns.

The final output will be a three-year forecast model of Solar Solutions' quarterly sales for each of the four situations. It will look something like this:

Euphoria

Straddling the Fence

Can't sleep at Night

Doom City

2016Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2017Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2018Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Forecasting for different situations will involve manipulating variables. As you run the scenarios, be sure that you are clear on what assumptions you are making and what variable(s) you have changed.

Include a couple of pages summary of the decisions you made and the effect each had on your forecast.