Question
i) If we believe that a time series follows an AR(1) with=.9 and an intercept value of .4, the last recorded values of the time
i) If we believe that a time series follows an AR(1) with=.9 and an intercept value of .4, the last recorded values of the time series were 5 (time t-1) and 5.4 (time t-2), and the last observed innovations (errors) were .3 (time t-1) and -.4 (time t-2), what is the model forecast for the coming period (time t)? For the period after that (time t+1)?
ii) If we believe that a time series follows an MA(1) with=.9 and an intercept value of 4, and the last recorded values of the time series were 5 (time t-1) and 5.4 (time t-2), and the last observed innovations (errors) were .3 (time t-1) and -.4 (time t-2), what is the model forecast for the coming period (time t)? For the period after that (time t+1)?
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