Question
if the odds of dying from all possible causes are 1 in 1, here are the lifetime odds of death for selected causes, from most
if the odds of dying from all possible causes are 1 in 1, here are the lifetime odds of death for selected causes, from most likely to least:
Cause of Death
Odds of Dying
Heart Disease and Cancer
1 in 7
Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease
1 in 28
Intentional Self-harm
1 in 95
Unintentional Poisoning by and Exposure to Noxious Substances
1 in 96
Motor Vehicle Crash
1 in 114
Fall
1 in 127
Assault by Firearm
1 in 370
Car Occupant
1 in 645
Pedestrian Incident
1 in 647
Motorcycle Rider Incident
1 in 985
Unintentional Drowning and Submersion
1 in 1,188
Exposure to Fire, Flames or Smoke
1 in 1,498
Choking from Inhalation and Ingestion of Food
1 in 3,461
Pedacyclist Incident
1 in 4,486
Firearms Discharge
1 in 6,905
Air and Space Transport Incidents
1 in 9,821
Exposure to Electric Current, Radiation, Temperature and Pressure
1 in 15,212
Exposure to Excessive Natural Heat
1 in 16,584
Contact with Sharp Objects
1 in 38,174
Contact with Heat and Hot Substances
1 in 56,992
Contact with Hornets, Wasps and Bees
1 in 63,225
Cataclysmic Storm
1 in 66,335
Being Bitten or Struck by a Dog
1 in 112,400
Legal Execution
1 in 119,012
Lightning Strike
1 in 161,856
determine the probability that in a group of 3 people, at least one of them die from heart disease or cancer, and explain why it is so difficult to calculate this probability directly yet so easy to calculate it using a trick.
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