If the true value of a stock increases from $100 to $120 in the first quarter, what is the chance of an increase the next quarter if the probability that a stock will increase is determined by the following formula:

Chance of an increase = (true value/100) + (sign of last change x .30) - .80

NOTE: If stock went up in the previous quarter, sign of last change is 1, if stock went down in the last quarter, sign of last change is -1

Question 1 options:

	20%
	80%
	100%
	70%
	50%