Illustration 2.4 Colouring the World In 2018, PWC's People and Organisation's consulting practice published a major report on four scenarios for the world of work in 2030. Fragmentation Yellow World Red World - humans come first - innovation rules Collectivism Individualism Green World Blue World companies care - corporate is king Integration Adapted from: PWC US (2018), "The competing forces shaping 2030, https://www.pwc.com/us/en/services/hr-management/workforce-of-the- future.html Wanting to provide its clients with long-term advice about the These two axes yielded four scenario stories, as summarised future evolution of work, PWC cooperated with researchers at in the figure above: the James Martin Institute for Science and Civilisation at the Said Briefly, the four scenarios for 2030 were as follows: Business School, University of Oxford, to produce four scenarios each named after a distinct colour. The researchers drew on 1. Yellow World, in which social enterprises and community a specially commissioned survey of 10,000 people in China, businesses flourish. Crowdfunded capital flows towards eth- India, Germany, the UK and the US and built on the concept of ical brands. Meaningful work is important. Artisans and craft megatrends. production thrive. Human values have priority. The five megatrends underpinning all the scenarios were: 2. Red World, in which consumers are dominant, and organisations and individuals race to serve them. Regulation cannot keep up with 1. Rapid advances in technological innovation, particularly au- innovation. Competition tends towards 'winner takes all' results. tomation, robotics and artificial intelligence However, specialists and niche businesses do well. 2. Demographic shifts, especially aging populations and work- 3. Green World, in which social responsibility and trust are cru- forces. cial for large corporations and demographic and climate 3. Rapid urbanisation, from about 5bn people to 8bn by 2030. changes are key drivers for business. 4. Shifts in global economic power, with today's rapidly devel- 4. Blue World, in which big business dominates, and individual oping nations such as China gaining particularly, while within wants have priority over social responsibilities. nations new technologies will threaten employment for the traditional middle classes. Source: 'Workforce of the future: The competing forces shaping 2030' PWC, 2018: www.pwc.com/us/en/hr-management/pwc-workforce- 5. Resource scarcity, as demand for energy and water will in- of-the-future-the-competing-forces-shaping-2030.pdf crease respectively by 50 per cent and 40 per cent by 2030. On this basis, the PWC-Oxford team developed two main axes upon which to differentiate their scenarios: collectivism versus Questions individualism and fragmentation versus integration. Collectivism 1 What other megatrends might have been considered implies a strong role for governments in society, individualism beyond the five considered here? more self-reliance. Integration implies an advantage for big busi- 2 What are the different implications of these scenarios nesses able to integrate and coordinate many activities; fragment for an international consulting firm such as PWC? Which tation implies an important role for small firms and organisations. scenario would it like best; which would it like least