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i'm not really sure what is being told here. is it possible to be summarized in detail ? As storm clouds gather, policymakers need to

i'm not really sure what is being told here. is it possible to be summarized in detail ?

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As storm clouds gather, policymakers need to keep In China, the frequent lockdowns under its zero a steady hand. COVID policy have taken a toll on the economy, The global economy continues to face steep especially in the second quarter of 2022. Furthermore, challenges, shaped by the lingering effects of three the property sector, representing about one-fifth of powerful forces: the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a economic activity in China, is rapidly weakening. cost-of-living crisis caused by persistent and broaden- Given the size of China's economy and its importance ing inflation pressures, and the slowdown in China. for global supply chains, this will weigh heavily on Our latest forecasts project global growth to remain global trade and activity. unchanged in 2022 at 3.2 percent and to slow to The external environment is already very chal- 2.7 percent in 2023-0.2 percentage points lower lenging for many emerging market and developing than the July forecast-with a 25 percent probability economies. The sharp appreciation of the US dollar that it could fall below 2 percent. More than a third adds significantly to domestic price pressures and to of the global economy will contract this year or next, the cost-of-living crisis for these countries. Capital while the three largest economies-the United States, flows have not recovered, and many low-income and the European Union, and China-will continue to developing economies remain in debt distress. The stall. In short, the worst is yet to come, and for many 2022 shocks will re-open economic wounds that were people 2023 will feel like a recession. only partially healed following the pandemic. Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues to powerfully Downside risks to the outlook remain elevated, destabilize the global economy. Beyond the escalating while policy trade-offs to address the cost-of-living and senseless destruction of lives and livelihoods, crisis have become acutely challenging. The risk of it has led to a severe energy crisis in Europe that monetary, fiscal, or financial policy miscalibration is sharply increasing costs of living and hampering has risen sharply at a time when the world economy economic activity. Gas prices in Europe have increased remains historically fragile and financial markets are more than four-fold since 2021, with Russia cutting showing signs of stress. deliveries to less than 20 percent of their 2021 levels, Increasing price pressures remain the most immedia raising the prospect of energy shortages over the next ate threat to current and future prosperity by squeezing winter and beyond. More broadly, the conflict has also real incomes and undermining macroeconomic stability. pushed up food prices on world markets, despite the Central banks around the world are now laser-focused recent casing after the Black Sea grain deal, causing on restoring price stability, and the pace of tightening serious hardship for low-income households world- has accelerated sharply. There are risks of both under- wide, and especially so in low-income countries. and over-tightening. Under-tightening would entrench Persistent and broadening inflation pressures have further the inflation process, erode the credibility of triggered a rapid and synchronized tightening of mon- central banks, and de-anchor inflation expectations. As etary conditions, alongside a powerful appreciation of history repeatedly teaches us, this would only increase the US dollar against most other currencies. Tighter the eventual cost of bringing inflation under control. global monetary and financial conditions will work Over-tightening risks pushing the global economy into their way through the economy, weighing demand an unnecessarily harsh recession. As several prominent down and helping to gradually subjugate inflation. voices have argued recently, over-tightening is more So far, however, price pressures are proving quite stub- likely when central banks act in an uncoordinated born and a major source of concern for policymakers. fashion. Financial markets may also struggle to cope We expect global inflation to peak in late 2022 but to with an overly rapid pace of tightening, Yet, the costs remain elevated for longer than previously expected, of these policy mistakes are not symmetric. Misjudging decreasing to 4.1 percent by 2024. yet again the stubborn persistence of inflation could

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