Imagine today is the afternoon of Nov. 14^th, 2020 and the Honourable Patty Hajdu, Minister of Health, has commissioned you to forecast the number of COVID-19 cases in Canada for Nov. 15^th, 2020. The number of COVID-19 cases in Canada from November 1^st to November 14^th has been 3244, 3273, 2974, 3283, 3922, 3669, 4246, 4594, 4086, 4302, 4024, 5516, 4741 and 5271 (assume the last number is the last update on the actual number of COVID-19 cases on Nov. 14^th, 2020), respectively. Given this data, respond to the following questions:

1. Between 3-day moving average versus 5-day moving average, which one would you choose for forecasting? Between exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.3 and alpha = 0.5, which one would you choose for forecasting?

2. What is your forecast for Nov.15 using the 3-day moving average method? (Two decimals) What is your forecast for Nov.15 using the linear regression method with the intercept of 2861 and slope of 162.78?(Two decimals)

3. What is the MAPD, also called MAPE, of the 3-day moving average, excluding the forecasted value for Nov. 15? (two decimals) What is the MAPD, also called MAPE, of the linear regression, excluding the forecasted value for Nov. 15? (two decimals)

4. What percentage of changes in the number of COVID-19 cases can be explained by periods (the independent variable)? (two decimals or percentage)