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In a 5 game series played with two teams, the rst team to win a total of 3 games is the winner. Suppose that the

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In a 5 game series played with two teams, the rst team to win a total of 3 games is the winner. Suppose that the outcomes of games are independent, and that team A wins with probability p and team B wins with probability 1 p. Conditional on the event that one team leads by 2 to 0, what is the probability that this team wins the series? (The answer is one number depending on p.)

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