Question
In an article that was published in the Wall Street Journal on January 20,2021, it was reported that yields on Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS,
In an article that was published in the Wall Street Journal on January 20,2021, it was reported that yields on Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, are a proxy for what investors call real Treasury yieldsor the return on regular Treasurys after adjusting for inflation. The 10-year TIPS yield has climbed slightly from its record closing low of minus 1.115% set on Jan. 4 but not nearly as much as the yield on the regular 10-year Treasury note. That yield, a benchmark rate for borrowing costs throughout the economy, has jumped to 1.090% in recent trading from 0.915% on Jan. 4. Yields rise when bond prices fall. Taken together, these moves suggest investors increasingly expect higher inflation, but not rate increases from the Fed. What factors have led investors to believe that inflation will increase in the future (keep in mind this is January of 2021)? Why have ex-ante nominal yields on US Treasuries increased during the past several weeks that are mentioned in the article used to answer these questions? Why is the market not expecting the Fed to raise rates in light of increasing inflation expectations? What would be their basis for not doing so? [U.S. Inflation-Protected Bond Yields Hold Near Record Lows]
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