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In C++ please. Viral Epidemic Model Using Diamond Princess Data The advent of the Covid19 virus (a.k.a. Coronavirus) has made predicting the spread of the
In C++ please.
Viral Epidemic Model Using Diamond Princess Data The advent of the Covid19 virus (a.k.a. Coronavirus) has made predicting the spread of the virus of great public concern. In this homework, we will be considering the effect of changing the basic Reproductive number, R0 , on the strength of the epidemic. Note: the basic Reproductive number, R0 , is largely dependent on factors such as whether Social Distancing is maintained, whether people are wearing, surgical masks, etc. The Diamond Princess outbreak took place before the ameliorating effects of these measures were well understood. The background of the mathematical model, we will be using may be found at: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3178755/ The model is as follows: Homework V-A Where S(t) represents the number of people susceptible to the virus. I(t) represents the number of people who are infected at any time. 1/a represents the number of days an infected person can transmit the infection to someone else (we will assume 1/a = 4 days or a = .25). N is the number of people in the closed community. b = a * R0 /N where R0 is the basic reproductive number. Dt will be 1 day. i.e. if the variables on the right of the above equations represent the state of infection and susceptibility on Monday, then the variables on the left will be the expected state on Tuesday. SusceptibleInfectiousRecovered model and the epidemic curve generated. Homework V Diamond Princess Analysis On January 20, 2020, the Cruise ship Diamond Princess set sail from Hong Kong carrying 1 passenger infected with Covid-19. By February 20, 2020 when the last passengers had disembarked into Tokyo, 621 persons had come down with Covid-19. This gives us 31 days of a well-documented controlled population from which to draw lessons and test our mathematical models. What we would like to know is, what is the infection rate, R0 , for this event. The mean rate of recovery, alpha, used in this calculation is defined as one divided by the number of days that a person infected with the Covid-19 virus can actually infect other people with the Covid-19 virus. In examining the data, there are estimates of the actual number of days that a person who has come down with Covid-19 is infectious varies from 3 days to 10 days. As a result, we will be doing this calculation using 1/alpha = 3, 1/alpha = 6, as well as 1/alpha = 10. Because of the variability from patient to patient, the R0 is often given over a range of alpha. Your job is to compute the R0 for 1/alpha = 3, 6, and 10, which will give us the range in the Diamond Princess case. Remember, in each of these three cases, on day 0 there is 1 infection and on day 31 there should be 621 people who have come down with infections (some of whom may have recovered while others may still be among the contagious or recovering). Homework V-A Your assignment is to write a program that calculates I(t)and S(t), using the data from the Diamond Princess cruise ship which held N = 3711 passengers. Note that people on the Diamond Princess were isolated on board the ship (effectively quarantined) for 31 days before being released. Upon release, there were a total of 621 people who had come down with the disease. Your calculation will generate a file of I(t) and S(t) over 150 days, rather than just the 31 days of the quarantine, showing what might have been expected to have occurred on board had the passengers been forced to remain on board more than 31 days. Homework V-A You should create two files called Susceptible.txt and Infected.txt. Your first entry into the file (day 0) should be N-1 for the Susceptible file and 1 for the Infected file (all you need is 1 infected person to start the process). Using what you have learned about loops and files, calculate out what the number of infections would have been if for each of the following 149 days of the test. Also calculate the number of Susceptible people as a function of each of the 150 days (starting at day 1). Although your calculations for I(t) and S(t) will be done in floating point, when you save the values for each day into the files for Infected.txt and Susceptible.txt, save these values as Integers (ultimately were dealing with whole persons, not fractions of people.)
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