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In general, there is one quarter of the chance that the economy will be in a recession. We observe that, on average, 80% of the

In general, there is one quarter of the chance that the economy will be in a recession. We observe that, on average, 80% of the one-year ahead recession is associated with a current inverted yield curve, while 90% of the one-year ahead boom is related to current normal yield curve. We are now experiencing an inverted yield. What is the likelihood that we will be in a recession next year?

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