In November 2008, a couple of weeks after the election of Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton was offered the job of Secretary of State of the United States. It was generally assumed that she faced the following trade-off joining the new administration, in perhaps the highest-profile cabinet position, which offered the chance of enhanced prestige and policy making clout in the executive branch, or continuing in the Senate, an option that promised less power (she would still be only one of a hundred) but greater autonomy. The other wrinkle was that most commentators assumed that taking an administration job would preclude a primary challenge against Barack Obama in 2012, and thus meant giving up faced three possibilities: Remain in the Congress and not win the Presidency in 2012 (C), remain in the Congress and win the Presidency in 2012 (P), or join the administration as secretary of state (S). State what you think Hillary Clinton's preference ranking was at that time. If the probability of winning the White House in 2012 if she had remained in the Senate is p, then use an expected utility argument to determine the smallest p that would have induced Clinton to remain in the Senate in order to run in 2012. In your opinion did Hillary Clinton's decision make sense?