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In presidential elections, televised debates between the candidates help to determine the ultimate outcome. One analysis of the transcripts of these debates looked at the

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In presidential elections, televised debates between the candidates help to determine the ultimate outcome. One analysis of the transcripts of these debates looked at the number of times that each candidate used the words "will", "shall", or "going to" as an indication of how many promises the candidate made. Also shown here is whether the candidate won the popular vote. Some years of data are missing as debates were not held in 1964, 1968 and 1972, and full transcripts are not available from the 1984 debates. Use this data to determine if the winner was significantly more likely to make promises (as measured by the number of times the candidate said "will", "shall" or "going to")? You will have to choose a test to do, do it, and then interpret the results. Tell me: what test you chose, report the p-value of that test, and tell me your interpretation. Your interpretation will have two parts: whether you reject the null hypothesis, and your conclusion in language that is pertinent to the problem. (In this problem, you will say whether the winner's "wills" were different from the loser's "wills"). Year Candidates (winner of popular vote first) winner's "wills" loser's "wills" 1960 Kennedy/Nixon 163 122 1976 Carter/Ford 68 32 1980 Reagan/Carter 19 18 1988 Bush/Dukakis 111 85 1992 Clinton/Bush 79 75 1996 Clinton/Dole 56 33 2000 Gore/Bush 68 48 2004 Bush/Kerry 176 149

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