Individual Forecasting Instructions

PART 2:

A total of 10 points is possible for this assignment. This includes the point values which are assigned to each question (point values are noted next to each question below). Your report should follow the prescribed assignment format, the proper writing style, and APA format.

Question a (3 points):

Prepare a forecast of call volume for July 2021 by applying Exponential Smoothing to the prior 18 months of (monthly) data. Use the appropriate Excel template from the Hillier text to prepare your forecast. Either assume that initial call volume is 16,000 and/or justify using a different initial value. Choose at least two different alpha values for your model. Model do these choices change your forecasts?

Show your forecast below and attach the completed Excel template. You must show your formulas within your spreadsheet (not hard-coded numbers).

Question b (3 points):

Apply Linear Regression to predict call volume from head count using the appropriate Excel template. Use 53,000 as your July 2021 head count input or a simple time-series method to project July 2021. Show your forecast below and attach the completed Excel template. Show your formulas (not hard-coded numbers).

Question c (1 point):

Calculate the Mean absolute deviation value of the Exponential Smoothing model (Question a) and the Average Absolute Estimation Error of the Linear Regression model (Question b). Explain the difference between these two values. Why does one method outperform the other?

Question d (1 point):

What is your best forecast for July 2021? Explain and Justify the Methods used in this analysis. Consider your answers to Questions a, b and c and all the factors that have been described above. You may present an additional model. Show your forecast value below and explain and justify how you came up with this forecast.

Question e (2 points):

Provide your recommendations to Stacy on how to modify forecasting processes and improve its

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accuracy.