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Informs Society is planning the 2022 annual conference for Applied Operations Research. The society board members haven't make the final decision yet whether to

 

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Informs Society is planning the 2022 annual conference for Applied Operations Research. The society board members haven't make the final decision yet whether to hold the conference online or on-site in Los Angles, US. If the conference is planned offline in Los Angles, the editor-in-chief estimated a 0.65 probability that the covid-19 situation would be back to normal and conference will attract successful fund support from commercial companies in this field. If successful, a profit of $75000 will be realized. However, if the society decides to hold the conference offline and the covid-19 situation remains, a loss of $25000 will occur because fewer commercial companies would participate. Alternatively, if the conference is held online, then the expected profit would be $15000. Before making the decision to hold the conference online or on-site, the editor is considering reviewing more information from CDC about current vaccination impact. A review process provides either a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) evaluation of the future situation. Existing experience with the review process suggests that probabilities P(F) = 0.7 and P(U) = 0.3 apply. A fixed reviewing fee applies, $2000. Suppose we define s as the event that the conference on-site is successful and s as the event that the conference on-site is unsuccessful. The editor-in-chief's initial estimated probabilities of s and s will be updated based on whether the review is favorable or unfavorable. The updated conditional probabilities are as follows: P(S|F) = 0.75 P(s|U) = 0.4 (a). Draw and describe the decision tree that will facilitate your analysis. (10 marks) (b). Determine and elaborate on editor-in-chief's recommendation given the above information.

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