Question
Instead of the extensive rework, CFOB can run one of two simpler diagnostic tests (but only one of them) to help determine whether the machine
Instead of the extensive rework, CFOB can run one of two simpler diagnostic tests (but only one of them) to help determine whether the machine will meet the customerspecifications or not.Either test would cost $2,000.Each test has two outcomes, satisfactory (S) or unsatisfactory (U).From experience, Test 1 does a better job of recognizing a machine that meets specifications while Test 2 is better at finding a machine that does not.
CFOB estimates that Test 1 will correctly identify a machine that meets specifications 90% of the time; Test 2 will indicate this70% of the time.
On the other hand, Test 1 will falsely indicate that a machine meets specifications25% of the time while Test 2 does thisonly 20% of the time.
If after the test you decide to do the extensive rework, the probability that the machine is okay (OK) is not changed by the outcome of the test (still 95%).
1.-What are the conditional probabilities for the two tests (written in the Pr(A|B) format)?
2.- If Test 1 is run, what is the probability it will be satisfactory (S)?If Test 2 is run, what is the probability it will be satisfactory (S)?
3.-If Test 1 is run and results in satisfactory (S) and the machine is shipped without rework, what is the probability the customer receives a machine that works correctly (OK)?What is the probability if the test result is unsatisfactory (U)?
4.-What is the probability the customer receives a machine that work correctly (OK)if Test 2 is run and results in satisfactory (S)?What is the probability if the test result is unsatisfactory (U)?
5.-Suppose the customer is in a hurry and does not want to experience the three week delay associated with rework.How much would they have to pay CFOB to make sure the probability of a working machine (OK) is as large as possible?
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