Question
Interest rates in Russia are currently 4.25% p.a. and in Malaysia interest rates are currently offered at 1.75% p.a. Current exchange rates are USD/RUB 76.5160
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Interest rates in Russia are currently 4.25% p.a. and in Malaysia interest rates are currently offered at 1.75% p.a. Current exchange rates are USD/RUB 76.5160 and USD/MYR 4.1400
The USD/RUB one year forward points are 40,000. The USD/MYR one year forward points are 510.
(a) Generate a one-year forecast for the value of the Russian Ruble in terms of Malaysian Ringgits using unbiased forward expectations.
(b) Generate a two-year forecast for the value of the Russian Ruble in terms of Malaysian Ringgits using the International Fisher Effect.
Show all workings.
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Three-years ago the AUD/USD exchange rate was 0.8115 and today the exchange rate now sits at AUD/USD 0.7607. Australian inflation has been at rates of 0.8%, 1.6% and 1.9% over the last 3 years. In the U.S., the inflation rates have been 1.2%, 1.8% and 2.4%.
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(a) Calculate today's real FX value of the AUD adjusted for the past three year's inflation differential (show all working).
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(b) Has the AUD appreciated or depreciated in real terms over the three-year period against the US Dollar? You must demonstrate and explain how it is that you know this. By how much has the AUDs value changed in real terms (answer as a percentage)?
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Using the following quotations: BRL / USD 0.1751 / 0.1755 USD / SEK 8.7217 / 8.7247 BRL / SEK 1.5278 / 1.5283 (Brazilian Real, US Dollar, Swedish Krona)
With 1000 USD, look for triangular arbitrage opportunities. What are the results of your attempts? NOTE: You must check two different alternatives answer as part (a) and then part (b). Answer is to be in USD (how much currency do you have after the series of transactions). You must be accurate to 2 decimal places (any rounding along the way may be penalised).
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