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International Machinery, Inc., produces a tractor and wishes to use quarterly tractor sales data observed in the last four years to predict quarterly tractor sales
International Machinery, Inc., produces a tractor and wishes to use quarterly tractor sales data observed in the last four years to predict quarterly tractor sales next year. The following MegaStat output gives the tractor sales data and the estimates of the seasonal factors and trend line for the data: Centered Moving Ratio to Seasonal Sales. y 1' Year Quarter Sales, y Average CMA Indexes Deseesonaized 800 1 1 1 293 1.191 245.9 700 2 1 2 392 1.521 257.7 3 1 3 221 275.125 0.803 0.804 275.0 600 4 1 4 147 302.000 0.437 0.484 303.9 >_~ 50 5 2 1 388 325250 1.193 1.191 325.7 a '00 G 2 2 512 338.125 1.514 1.521 336.6 300 7 2 3 287 354.125 0.810 0.804 357.1 200 8 2 4 1 84 381 .500 0.482 0.484 380.4 100 9 3 1 479| 405.000 1.183 1.191 402.0 0 10 3 2 640 417.375 1.533 1.521 420.7 1 1 3 3 347 435.000 0.798 0.804 431.8 12 3 4 223 462.125 0.483 0.484 461.0 13 4 1 581 484.375 1.199 1.191 487.7 14 4 2 755 497.625 1.517 1.521 496.3 15 4 3 410 0.804 510.2 16 4 4 266 0.484 549.9 Calculation of Seasonal Indexes 'I 2 3 4 I ____ 2 \"ram 3 \"3-53 4 -IEI___ mean: 1 .1 92 1 .522 0.804 0.484 41!\" adjusted: 1.191 1.521 0.804 0.484 4.000 Click here forthe Excel Data File Using the above output compute an approximate 95 percent prediction interval forecast of tractor sales for each of the quarters next year. Use the fact that the half-lengths of 95 percent prediction intervals for the deseasonalized sales values in the four quarters of next year are, respectively, 14, 14.4, 14.6, and 15. (Round your answers to 1 decimal place.) 95% Prediction Intervals: Quarter 1 year 5: [ Quarter 2 year 5: [ Quarter 3 year 5: [ Quarter 4 year 5: [
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