Investing Timing Option The Bush Oil Company is deciding whether to drill for oil on a tract of land that the company owns. The company
Investing Timing Option The Bush Oil Company is deciding whether to drill for oil on a tract of land that the company owns. The company estimates that the project will cost $6 million today. Bush estimates that once drilled, the oil will generate positive cash flows of $3.9 million a year at the end of each of the next 4 years. Although the company is fairly confident about its cash flow forecast, it recognizes that if it waits 2 years, it will have more information about the local geology as well as the price of oil. Bush estimates that if it waits 2 years, the project will cost $9 million, and cash flows will continue for 4 years after the initial investment is made. Moreover, if it waits 2 years, there is a 95% chance that the cash flows will be $4.0 million a year for 4 years, and there is a 5% chance that the cash flows will be $2.0 million a year for 4 years. Assume that all cash flows are discounted at 10%. If the company chooses to drill today, what is the projects expected net present value? Expected NPV = million (to 4 decimals) Would it make sense to wait 2 years before deciding whether to drill? Explain. NPV of waiting million (to 4 decimals) , because the NPV of waiting two years is than going ahead and proceeding with the project today. What is the value of the investment timing option? $ million (to 4 decimals) What disadvantages might arise from delaying a project such as this drilling project?
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