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is it possible to summarize and condense in detail this picture into a body paragraph? quotes used as well would be great. Similar Past Episodes

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is it possible to summarize and condense in detail this picture into a body paragraph? quotes used as well would be great.

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Similar Past Episodes Do Not Show a Wage-Price Spiral Taking Hold Similar past episodes were not followed by a wage-price spiral, in which both inflation and nomi- nal wage growth keep rising over a prolonged period (Figure 2.2, panels 1 and 3). Nominal wage growth did tend to increase somewhat after these episodes, but inflation edged down on average. In combination, this led to an increase in real wages (Figure 2.2, panel 4). The unemployment rate generally stabilized after the episodes (Figure 2.2, panel 2). Although the average subsequent path suggests little cause for alarm, there is heterogeneity across historical episodes. A notable example is the United States in the second quarter of 1979, when inflation was on a sharp upward path immediately following the episode, rising rapidly for four quarters before starting to decline. The unemployment rate also rose more than during the other identified episodes. Underlying these changes was an aggressive monetary tightening that began around the time of the infla- tion peak: the so-called Volcker disinflation. Nominal wage growth-which had not shown signs of con- tinuing its upward path-was relatively flat during this period, leading to a decline in real wages early on. But as inflation came down, the deterioration in real wages decreased. A similar policy response is observed in many of the other episodes as well. In fact, monetary policy tight- ening followed most of the past episodes, which helped to keep inflation contained. Thus, the evidence from similar historical episodes suggests that an appropriate The earlier literature on wage-price spirals has considered a wide array of definitions, ranging from a simple feedback between wages (as a cost of production) and prices, to a coin- cident acceleration of wages and prices, to a situation in which wage inflation persistently exceeds price inflation. As noted in the introduction, this chapter defines a wage-price spiral as an episode of several quarters characterized by accelerating wages and prices (that is, in which wage and price inflation are rising simultaneously). "Our of the 22 episodes illustrated in Figure 2.2, 13 were followed by monetary policy tightening (Annex Table 2.3.2)

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