Question
It is Known that certain weather events such as thunderstorms, winter storms and high wind have an impact on the occurrence of power outages. Let
It is Known that certain weather events such as thunderstorms, winter storms and high wind have an impact on the occurrence of power outages. Let random variables A denote the number of outages in Arlington and B denote the number of outages in Bethesda in a given day.
In Arlington, the number of power outage has a Poisson distribution with on average 10 outages in a day when the weather is good and on average 12 outages in a day when the weather is bad. Similarly, in Bethesda, the number of power outage has a Poisson distribution with outage rate 5 when the weather is good and 10 when the weather is bad.
Given the weather condition, the outage occurrences in Arlington and Bethesda are independent of each other, that is, A and B are conditionally independent Poisson random variable given the weather condition. Based on the past experience, it is known that 80% of the time the weather is good (that is 80% of the days are "good" days and 20% of the days are "bad" days) in both area.
What is the probability that the number of outages in Arlington is more than the number of outages in Bethesda in a given day?
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