Question
Jen Smith has decided to become her own boss after spending 5 years as an assistant manager for a restaurant. The owner of a local
Jen Smith has decided to become her own boss after spending 5 years as an assistant manager for a restaurant. The owner of a local sandwich store wants to sell the store to Jen for $65,000 to be paid in installments of $13,000 in each of the next 5 years. According to the current owner, the store brings in revenue of about $110,000 per year and incurs operating costs of about 63% of sales. Thus, once the store is paid for, Jen should make about $35,000 -$40,000 per year before taxes. Until the store is paid for, she will make substantially less-but she will be her own boss. Realizing that some uncertainty is involved in this decision, Jen wants to simulate what level of net income she can expect to earn during the next 5 years as she operates and pays for the store. In particular, she wants to see what could happen if sales are allowed to vary based on a normal distribution with mean of $100,000 and standard deviation of $10,000, and if operating costs are allowed to vary uniformly between 60% and 65% of sales. Assume that Jen's payments for the store are not deductible for tax purposes and that she is in the 28% tax bracket. (Use Excel for all parts a, b and c)
a. Make a spreadsheet model to simulate the annual net income Jen will receive during each of the next five years if she decides to buy the store. (3 points)
b. Given the money she has in savings; Jen thinks she can get by for the next five years if she can make at least $12,000 from the store each year. Run 100 simulation (replication) and find the probability that Jen will make at least $12,000 in each of the next five years? (1 point)
c. What is the probability (Based on 100 simulation) that Jen will make at least $60,000 total over the next five years? (1 point)
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