Jorge owns an apartment. As a matter of fact, 29% of people in his country own an apartment. He is now concerned that the ceiling of his apartment might be leaking, after seeing that there is a small lump in the paint of his ceiling. The manager of his apartment building mentioned that there had been five water leaks in Jorge's building that year, a building that has 100 units. It's true that minor paint damage to bathrooms is quite common; he sees it about half the time when he visit's someone's apartment even when they don't have a water leak. However, he knows that every building that has a water leak in the ceiling will have damage to its ceiling's paint, so now he is sure that there must be a leak.

1.Jorge has ten neighbours on his floor. Approximately what is the probability that none of his ten neighbours has experienced a water leak this year?

2.Is Jorge right that there must be a water leak? Is that what the damaged paint should make us think?

Which of the following statements is true?

Select one:

A. Strength factor of the evidence = 5:95

B. The prior odds are 2:1

C. The prior odds are 29% (0.29:1)

D. The prior odds are 1:29

E. The prior odds are 1:2

F. Strength factor of the evidence = 19:1

G. Strength factor of the evidence = 1:1

H. Strength factor of the evidence = 95:5

I. The prior odds are 1:19

J. None of the above sentences are true

3.Calculate what confidence Jorge should have that his ceiling has a water leak

4.In at most four sentences, explain the calculation. Did Jorge's apartment have a water leak? What effect should see the damage to the ceiling has in his opinion?