Joseph's Pharmaceuticals is looking to license a prescription $($Rx$)$ product to add to their CNS $($central nervous system$)$ product portfolio.

They only have enough fund to license $1$ product. In this project, please determine which product you would recommend to the company for the licensing opportunity based on $5$yr sales prediction $($forecast$).$

Both products being evaluated are expected to launch in the US next year, January. You are to develop two predictive model $(1$ for each product$),$ and determine the likely sales revenue for each product for $5$ years and determine which product is a more promising product for Joseph's Pharma.

Following is the information you have available, however you are not limited to these set of information. You can gather any supporting information $($from the web, expert, etc$)$ to make your recommendation as accurate as possible in identifying your target treatable patients $($you need to source it$).$

Depression Rx Product Insomnia Rx Product

For severe depression patients US who are $18$&up For severe insomnia patients in the US who are $18$&up

Only applys to those who have the medicare and medicaid Only applys to those who have an commercial insurance coverage

Once a day dosing Once a day dosing

Price: $$5\mathrm{.}25/$day Price: $$9\mathrm{.}50/$day

Length of Therapy: $250$ days$/$year Length of Therapy: $100$ days$/$year

Market penetration rate: $($yrs to peak$)$ Market penetration rate: $($yrs to peak$)$

$1$st year: $30\%1$st year: $50\%$

$2$nd year: $50\%2$nd year: $80\%$

$3$rd year: $85\%3$rd year: $100\%$

$4$th year: $100\%4$th year: $100\%$

$5$th year: $100\%5$th year: $100\%$

Depression Product in consideration has the following profile when launching Insomnia Product in consideration has the following profile when launching

Efficacy$1$ Efficacy$2$ Pricing Safety Convenience Packaging Marketing Conferences Targeting Efficacy$1$ Efficacy$2$ Pricing Safety Convenience Packaging Marketing Conferences Targeting

Baseline $567566565$ Baseline $656576566$

Upside $678677676$ Upside $767687677$

Downside $456455454$ Downside $545465455$