JR Industries has a $20 million loan due at the end of the year and under its current business strategy, its assets will have a market value of only $15 million when the loan comes due. JR is considering a new much riskier business strategy. While this new riskier strategy can be implemented using JR's existing assets without any additional investment, the new strategy has only a 40% probability of succeeding. If the new strategy is a success, the market value of JR's assets will be $30, but if the strategy fails the assets will be worth only $5 million. What is the expected payoff to debt holders under JR's new riskier business strategy? 1. $20 million 2. $4 million 3. $15 million 4. $11 million