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Forecast the outofsample values for every month in the period July June both months
inclusive using only one appropriate exponential smoothing model either simple
exponential smoothing or Holt exponential smoothing models that you think is most
appropriate given the data Your starting value for any parameters should be
Before you begin Exercise lets check that you have the right data! The average
should be
For Simple Exponential Smoothing for the seed of the level use the first observation,
Y
For Holts Exponential Smoothing for the seed of the level use the first observation,
Y For the seed of the trend take the difference of the first two observations Y Y
Once you identify and develop an appropriate exponential smoothing model with the starting values for parameters
Critically think for a way to optimise alpha and beta if there is no beta, you can input for
question via the MSE, and report the following values after your optimisation:
Alpha.
Beta.
The MAPE.
The withinsample forecast for Januar
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