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. . Kaya scenarios. In this problem you will estimate the rate at which energy must be decarbonized in order to avoid the worst consequences
. . Kaya scenarios. In this problem you will estimate the rate at which energy must be decarbonized in order to avoid the worst consequences of climate change, given a range of assumptions about population, GDP, and energy use. Assume all growth rates are exponential. Assume the following values for the world in 2020: Population = 7.8 billion GDP = $87 trillion per year Energy use = 600 EJ per year CO2 emissions = 35 Gt per year a. What is current GDP per capita, in S/pers? (2 pts.) b. What is current energy use per dollar of GDP, in MJ/S? (2 pts.) c. What is current carbon intensity of energy, in kg CO/MJ? (2 pts.) d. What is current carbon intensity of GDP, in kg CO2/$? (2 pts.) e. What is current carbon intensity per capita, in kg CO /pers? (2 pts.) f. What will population will be in 2050 if it grows (1) 0.5 %/y (1) 1.0 %/y? (4 pts.) g. What will GDP be in 2050 if (1) per capita GDP growth is 1.5%/y combined with your lower population result in part f. and (ii) per capita GDP growth is 2.5%ly combined with your higher population result rate in part f. (4 pts.) h. What will energy use be in 2050 if (1) energy use per dollar of GDP decreases -2.0 %/y combined with your lower GDP result in part g; and (ii) energy use per dollar of GDP decreases -1.0 %/y combined with your higher GDP result in part g. (4 pts.) i. What is the rate of decrease per year of total CO2 emissions required to reduce emissions to 5% their current level in 2050? (2 pts.) j. Assuming the lower growth rates for population, GDP per capita, and energy use per dollar of GDP given in parts f, g, and h, at what rate must CO2 emissions per unit of energy decrease in order to reduce total CO2 emissions to 5% of their current level in 2050? (2 pts.) k. Assuming the higher growth rates for population, GDP per capita, and energy use per dollar of GDP given in parts f, g, and h, at what rate must CO2 emissions per unit of energy decrease in order to reduce total CO2 emissions to 5% of their current level in 2050? (2 pts.) 1. Assuming your answers to part j and k describe the low and high end of the range of decarbonization rates required to protect the climate, the emissions intensity of energy must be cut in half every X to Y years. What are the values of X and Y? (2 pts.)
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