Question
Landloc, a real estate development firm, is considering several alternative development projects. These include building and leasing an office building, purchasing a parcel of land
Landloc, a real estate development firm, is considering several alternative development projects. These include building and leasing an office building, purchasing a parcel of land and building a parking lot, buying and leasing a warehouse, building a shopping mall, and building and selling condominiums. The financial success of these projects depends on interest rate movement in the next five years. The various development projects and their five-year financial return ($ millions) given that interest rates will decline, remain stable, or increase are shown in the following table.
Project | Interest Rates | ||
Decline | Stable | Increase | |
Office Building | 0.5 | 1.7 | 4.5 |
Parking lot | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.4 |
Warehouse | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
Shopping mall | 0.7 | 2.4 | 3.6 |
Condominiums | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
I. Determine the best investment using the following decision criteria.
Minimax regret
The Hurwicz criterion (assume =0.3)
II. Assume that the Landloc real estate development firm has hired an economist to assign a probability to each direction interest rates may take over the next five years. The economist has determined that there is a 0.50 probability that interest rates will decline, a 0.40 probability that rates will remain stable, and a 0.10 probability that rates will increase.
a. Using expected value, determine the best project.
b. Determine the expected value of perfect information
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