Listen An oil company is considering making a bid on a shale oil development contract to be awarded by the federal government. The company has decided to bid $210 million. They estimate that they have a 70% chance of winning the contract at this bid. If the firm wins the contract, management has three alternatives for processing the shale. It can develop a new method for extracting the oil, use the present process, or ship the shale overseas for processing. The development cost of a new process is $30 million. The outcomes and probabilities associated with developing the new method are as follows: Event Probability Financial Outcome ($ millions) Extremely Successful 0.7 450 Moderately Successful 0.2 200 Failure 0.1 20 The present method costs $7 million, and the outcomes and probabilities for this alternative are given as follows: Event Probability Financial Outcome ($ millions)