M N 0 P Q R D E F G H oblem 10.10 The statistics budget: forecasting encounters. ZMG Hospitalist Practice Estimating Medicare encounters for 20X2: 5 percent growth January through June and 10 percent growth July through December Step 1. Forecasting total encounters Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug A Total encounters for 20X1 5,007 4,676 5,044 4.686 4,480 4.596 4,697 B Proiected growth 4,833 Total encounters for 20X2 Sep 4,653 Oct 4.923 Now Dec 5,202 Tot 57,531 4,734 Note: Total encounters for 20x2 are calculated by the following formula: AX (1+B) and rounding the answer Step 2. Identifying intensity and payor category percentages Medicare D Admissions 14% E Follow-up 424 F Total 56% Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sup Oct Nov Dec Total 20x2 estimated encounters by type for patients with Medicare insurance Feb G Admissions H Follow up Total Note: Totals in each category are calculated by multiplying monthly amounts in row by row D for admissions, and by row for follow-up encounters, respectively. In answering this question, notice that in July through December, the projected growth rate has increased from 5 percent to 10 percent. o Statistics budget: forecasting encounters. Instead of its current forecast, ZMG Hospitalist Practice now estimates that it will not obtain a major HMO contract, and its encounters July through December are expected to rise by only 1.8 percent a month from the previous year. Assuming these are the only changes to Exhibit Ila, prepare a new forecast of the number of encounters that will be made by commercial patients during the whole year