Question
Marc Dodier is a recent university graduate and a security analyst with the Kansas City brokerage firm of Lippman, Brickbats, and Shaft. Marc has been
Marc Dodier is a recent university graduate and a security analyst with the Kansas City brokerage firm of Lippman, Brickbats, and Shaft. Marc has been following one of the hottest issues on Wall Street, C&I Medical Supplies, a company that has turned in an outstanding performance lately and, even more important, has exhibited excellent growth potential. It has five million shares outstanding and pays a nominal annual dividend of $0.05 per share. Marc has decided to take a closer look at C&I to assess its investment potential. Assume the company's sales for the past five years have been as follows:
Year Sales ($ millions)
2012 10.0
2013 12.5
2014 16.2
2015 22.00
2016 28.5
Marc is concerned with the future prospects of the company, not its past. As a result, he pores over the numbers and generates the following estimates of future performance:
Expected net profit margin: 12%
Estimated annual dividends per share: 5 cents
Number of common shares outstanding: No change
P/E Ratio at the end of 2017: 35
P/E Ratio at the end of 2018: 50
Questions
- Determine the average annual rate of growth in sales over the past five years. (Assume sales in 2011 amounted to $7.5 million.)
- Use this average growth rate to forecast revenues for next year (2017) and the year after that (2018).
- Now determine the company's net earnings and EPS for each of the next two years (2017 and 2018).
- Finally, determine the expected future price of the stock at the end of this two-year period.
- Because of several intrinsic and market factors, Marc feels that 25% is a viable figure to use for a desired rate of return.
- Using the 25% rate of return and the forecasted figures you came up with in questiona, compute the stock's justified price.
- If C&I is currently trading at $32.50 per share, should Marc consider the stock a worthwhile investment candidate? Explain.
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