Mariah Henderson is a WCU student who has just finished her junior year. The data summarizes
her grade point average (GPA) for each of the last 9 semesters.
a) Compute the forecasts using the naïve forecasting method. What is the MAD?
b) Compute the forecast for Senior Year – Fall Semester using the naïve forecasting method.
c) Compute the forecasts using the two-period moving average. What is the MAPE?
d) Compute the forecast for Senior Year – Fall Semester using the two-period moving average.
e) Compute the forecasts using the three-period weighted moving average using weights of 0.4,
0.35, and 0.25. What is the MSE?
f) Compute the forecast for Senior Year – Fall Semester using the three-period weighted moving
average using weights of 0.4, 0.35, and 0.25.
g) Compute the forecasts using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.25 and a
forecast for First Year – Fall Semester of 2.60. What is the MAPE?
h) Compute the forecast for Senior Year – Fall Semester using exponential smoothing with a
smoothing constant of 0.25 and a forecast for First Year – Fall Semester of 2.60.
i) Create a tracking signal plot for the two-period moving average data. Does the chart indicate
that this method accurately predicts the data (does the data fall within ± 4 MAD)?
j) Comparing one of the error measurements (MAD, MSE, or MAPE) – which is the best forecasting
method? Which is the worst forecasting method?

Year	Semester	GPA
First Year	Fall	2.65
	Winter	2.93
	Spring	2.87
Sophomore	Fall	3.05
	Winter	3.42
	Spring	3.29
Junior	Fall	3.3
	Winter	3.6
	Spring	3.25