[Markov Models] Consider the following situation:

There are three possible states: healthy, sick and dead.

Healthy people can get sick, and sick people can recover and become healthy.

Healthy people can die, and sick people can die. Dead people stay dead.

Each 'cycle' is one day long.

If you are healthy today, there is an 80% chance that you will be healthy tomorrow, and a 5% chance that you die. If you do not stay healthy or die, you become sick.

If you are sick today, there is a 60% chance that you will be sick tomorrow, and a 10% chance that you will die. If you do not stay sick or die, you recover (become healthy).

In 'Cycle 0', there are 1,000 healthy people, 800 sick people and 0 dead people.

a. Draw a Markov diagram for the situation above (hint: it's the diagram with the circles and arrows).

b. Calculate the number of healthy people, sick people and dead people in Cycle 2. If necessary, round your answers to the nearest whole number. Show your work. (Hint: Cycle 2 is 2 cycles after Cycle 0. If Cycle 0 is today, then Cycle 1 is tomorrow, and Cycle 2 is the day after tomorrow.)

Healthy People in Cycle 2: ____1021________

Sick People in Cycle 2: _____534______

Dead People in Cycle 2: ____245_____ (1000*0.05+0.1*800) +((800*0.6+0.15*1000)*0.1)+((1000*0.8+800*0.3)*0.05)=245

Work:

I have a question about dead people in cycle 2. I think dead people in cycle 2 should not include cycle 1 dead people(not include (1000*0.05+800*0.1)). So dead people in cycle 2=115 What do you think