Microsoft is contemplating whether to acquire the rights to Samsung 's highly anticipated and fully - market - ready wrappable mobile phone at a cost of $ 2 billion , try to develop a wrappable phone in - house at a n initial cost of $ 1.5 billion, or stay away from the wrappable mobile phone market for now. If Microsoft decides to try to develop a wrappable phone in - house ; only after spending the initial sum of $1.5 billion , Microsoft will figure out whether the estimated initial cost of $1.5 billion is sufficient to make the in - house wrappable phone ready for a market launch (70% chance). If the in - house phone is not ready for a marke t launch, Microsoft can decide to sell the rights this partially developed phone to another company for $ 1 billion, or invest additional $ 0.2 billion to get the phone ready for a market launch. Once the phone (developed in - house or bought from Samsung ) is ready for a market launch, Microsoft must decide whether to launch the market - ready phone first in North America (at an additional cost of $0.3 billion) or