Milos, the Vice-President of Kitchen Appliances at Evtel, decided to produce a new smart home device that sends sounds to other rooms with a single touch. The company is planning to analyze Turkey's sound systems sales data for the past 5 years with various forecasting methods to predict future sales. Help the company with the analysis by answering the questions below. Part 1 Answer the following questions by using Tables A and B. 1 What is the cumulative sales at the end of the third quarter of 2018? 2 What is the estimated market size? 3 What is the percentage increase between the cumulative sales at the end of the third quarter of 2018 and the fourth quarter of 2020? 4 Report the potential percentage of buyers that makes the market penetration 12% in the first quarter of 2019? (This question is independent.) Part 2 Milos asks you to evaluate Exponential, and 2nd Degree Polynomial trendlines to the past quarter-sales of sound systems. Answer the following questions. (Use Table A and Table B.) 1 2 First 3 quarters of 2023 using According to Exponential and 2nd Degree Polynomial trendlines, how many sound systems are expected Exponential Trendline to be sold in the following periods? Last 3 months of 2022 using 2nd Degree Polynomial Trendline What is the difference between the estimated cumulative sales for the 3rd quarter of 2025 according to the 2nd Degree Polynomial trendline and the Exponential trendline? (Report a positive value.) Decide which trendline has a smaller sum of squared errors and report the difference between market penetration at the end of the first half of 2024 and the end of 2026 according to that trendline. (Report a positive value.) (Use Market Penetration to calculate the SSE.) Evtel wants to cover 35% of the market until the beginning of the second half of 2023. Using the Exponential trendline, find how many more sales Evtel should gain in order to achieve this goal? 3 4 Part 3 Milos wanted to better results, so he asks Berat, an experienced forecasting specialist, to apply Gompertz Model to the given data. Assist him to analyze the market and create the sales model, use the Gompertz parameters a = 1, b = 0.06, k = 5. 1 What is the estimated yearly sales of 2025? 2 3 4 What is the difference in sales between the Exponential trendline and the Gompertz Model for the year 2023? (Report a positive value.) If the average price of one smart home product is 2000, report the first year when the expected total revenue exceeds 3,952,000,000 according to Gompertz. The company aims to reach a 50% market penetration in the third quarter of 2025 by only changing the rate of acceptance. Report the acceptance rate. (This question is independent.) Berat wanted to evaluate different scenarios in order to be prepared for every alternative scenarios in the market. Help him. (Each question is Part 4 independent from each others.) (Remark: use the Gompertz parameters a = 1, b = 0.06, k = 5.) (Remark: Each question is independent from each other.) Scientists have announced that they are expecting a new variant of Covid-19 and with the new deadly version of the Covid-19, the population is expected to decline by 5% in 2023. Report the difference between the second half sales, before this assumption and after this assumption in 2024 according to Gompertz. (Report a positive value.) With the increase in the euro/lira rate, the smart home appliances sector was negatively affected. Therefore, potential percentage of buyers were reduced to 25%. In order to generate the same yearly revenue in 2026, what should be the new price? (Remark: Old price is same with Part3.3) 1 2 b 3 Using Solver, find the band k values that minimize the sum of squared errors in market penetration, between Gompertz and the actual data. Report the parameters' new values. k Part 5 Berat asks you to answer the following questions about Gompertz Curve. 1 What does the "b" value represent in the Gompertz formula? Rate of Acceptance 2 How does a higher "k" value affect the Gompertz curve? Click Here TABLE B: Market Details Population 84,000,000 TABLE C: Gompertz Parameters b a a k S(t)=ae -ke-bt = 1.00 0.06 5.00 Potential percentage of buyers Market Size 32% Years 2018 2019 TABLE A: Past Sales Quarters Past Sales Q1 299,749 Q2 299,007 Q3 294,853 Q4 308.774 Q1 309,960 Q2 305,522 Q3 301,550 04 308,270 Q1 321,969 Q2 319,630 Q3 315,354 04 320,644 Q1 316,536 02 328,749 Q3 332,366 04 340,118 Q1 356,606 Q2 353,761 Q3 337,370 04 358,847 2020 2021 2022 Milos, the Vice-President of Kitchen Appliances at Evtel, decided to produce a new smart home device that sends sounds to other rooms with a single touch. The company is planning to analyze Turkey's sound systems sales data for the past 5 years with various forecasting methods to predict future sales. Help the company with the analysis by answering the questions below. Part 1 Answer the following questions by using Tables A and B. 1 What is the cumulative sales at the end of the third quarter of 2018? 2 What is the estimated market size? 3 What is the percentage increase between the cumulative sales at the end of the third quarter of 2018 and the fourth quarter of 2020? 4 Report the potential percentage of buyers that makes the market penetration 12% in the first quarter of 2019? (This question is independent.) Part 2 Milos asks you to evaluate Exponential, and 2nd Degree Polynomial trendlines to the past quarter-sales of sound systems. Answer the following questions. (Use Table A and Table B.) 1 2 First 3 quarters of 2023 using According to Exponential and 2nd Degree Polynomial trendlines, how many sound systems are expected Exponential Trendline to be sold in the following periods? Last 3 months of 2022 using 2nd Degree Polynomial Trendline What is the difference between the estimated cumulative sales for the 3rd quarter of 2025 according to the 2nd Degree Polynomial trendline and the Exponential trendline? (Report a positive value.) Decide which trendline has a smaller sum of squared errors and report the difference between market penetration at the end of the first half of 2024 and the end of 2026 according to that trendline. (Report a positive value.) (Use Market Penetration to calculate the SSE.) Evtel wants to cover 35% of the market until the beginning of the second half of 2023. Using the Exponential trendline, find how many more sales Evtel should gain in order to achieve this goal? 3 4 Part 3 Milos wanted to better results, so he asks Berat, an experienced forecasting specialist, to apply Gompertz Model to the given data. Assist him to analyze the market and create the sales model, use the Gompertz parameters a = 1, b = 0.06, k = 5. 1 What is the estimated yearly sales of 2025? 2 3 4 What is the difference in sales between the Exponential trendline and the Gompertz Model for the year 2023? (Report a positive value.) If the average price of one smart home product is 2000, report the first year when the expected total revenue exceeds 3,952,000,000 according to Gompertz. The company aims to reach a 50% market penetration in the third quarter of 2025 by only changing the rate of acceptance. Report the acceptance rate. (This question is independent.) Berat wanted to evaluate different scenarios in order to be prepared for every alternative scenarios in the market. Help him. (Each question is Part 4 independent from each others.) (Remark: use the Gompertz parameters a = 1, b = 0.06, k = 5.) (Remark: Each question is independent from each other.) Scientists have announced that they are expecting a new variant of Covid-19 and with the new deadly version of the Covid-19, the population is expected to decline by 5% in 2023. Report the difference between the second half sales, before this assumption and after this assumption in 2024 according to Gompertz. (Report a positive value.) With the increase in the euro/lira rate, the smart home appliances sector was negatively affected. Therefore, potential percentage of buyers were reduced to 25%. In order to generate the same yearly revenue in 2026, what should be the new price? (Remark: Old price is same with Part3.3) 1 2 b 3 Using Solver, find the band k values that minimize the sum of squared errors in market penetration, between Gompertz and the actual data. Report the parameters' new values. k Part 5 Berat asks you to answer the following questions about Gompertz Curve. 1 What does the "b" value represent in the Gompertz formula? Rate of Acceptance 2 How does a higher "k" value affect the Gompertz curve? Click Here TABLE B: Market Details Population 84,000,000 TABLE C: Gompertz Parameters b a a k S(t)=ae -ke-bt = 1.00 0.06 5.00 Potential percentage of buyers Market Size 32% Years 2018 2019 TABLE A: Past Sales Quarters Past Sales Q1 299,749 Q2 299,007 Q3 294,853 Q4 308.774 Q1 309,960 Q2 305,522 Q3 301,550 04 308,270 Q1 321,969 Q2 319,630 Q3 315,354 04 320,644 Q1 316,536 02 328,749 Q3 332,366 04 340,118 Q1 356,606 Q2 353,761 Q3 337,370 04 358,847 2020 2021 2022