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MM-YY Period Sales Forecast t St Ft 9-Jul 1 3,303 9-Aug 2 3,360 3,303 9-Sep 3 3,828 3,326 9-Oct 4 4,257 3,527 9-Nov 5 5,508
MM-YY | Period | Sales | Forecast |
t | St | Ft | |
9-Jul | 1 | 3,303 | |
9-Aug | 2 | 3,360 | 3,303 |
9-Sep | 3 | 3,828 | 3,326 |
9-Oct | 4 | 4,257 | 3,527 |
9-Nov | 5 | 5,508 | 3,819 |
9-Dec | 6 | 5,205 | 4,494 |
10-Jan | 7 | 5,190 | 4,779 |
10-Feb | 8 | 5,058 | 4,943 |
10-Mar | 9 | 5,307 | 4,989 |
10-Apr | 10 | 4,563 | 5,116 |
10-May | 11 | 4,512 | 4,895 |
10-Jun | 12 | 4,434 | 4,742 |
10-Jul | 13 | 4,440 | 4,619 |
10-Aug | 14 | 5,178 | 4,547 |
10-Sep | 15 | 5,277 | 4,800 |
10-Oct | 16 | 6,411 | 4,991 |
10-Nov | 17 | 7,308 | 5,559 |
10-Dec | 18 | 7,275 | 6,258 |
11-Jan | 19 | 7,065 | 6,665 |
11-Feb | 20 | 7,497 | 6,825 |
11-Mar | 21 | 7,326 | 7,094 |
11-Apr | 22 | 6,207 | 7,187 |
11-May | 23 | 5,976 | 6,795 |
11-Jun | 24 | 5,874 | 6,467 |
11-Jul | 25 | 5,970 | 6,230 |
11-Aug | 26 | 6,666 | 6,126 |
11-Sep | 27 | 7,575 | 6,342 |
11-Oct | 28 | 8,367 | 6,835 |
11-Nov | 29 | 9,051 | 7,448 |
11-Dec | 30 | 9,696 | 8,089 |
12-Jan | 31 | 9,594 | 8,732 |
12-Feb | 32 | 9,084 | 9,077 |
12-Mar | 33 | 8,955 | 9,080 |
12-Apr | 34 | 8,235 | 9,030 |
12-May | 35 | 8,055 | 8,712 |
12-Jun | 36 | 7,767 | 8,449 |
Note: The alpha value = 0.4 and initial forecast F2 = S1 = 3,303 units.
Use the existing sales data to determine the appropriate forecasting technique using Excel. The forecasting techniques under consideration are (a) Exponential smoothing; (b) Simple linear regression; and (c) Decomposition using least squares regression. You will have to compute forecasts using each of these techniques and then determine which of the three provides a more accurate forecast based on Mean Absolute Deviation.
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