Monte waited patiently for the board of directors of AgroPest International to absorb his presentation. The company, which produces agricultural fertilizers and pesticides, has a new CEO who values evidence-based decision-making. The board of directors was used to presentations that relied on instinct and theory. They were not used to what they just saw, which was a decision tree with probabilities, expected values, and return-to-risk ratios. They just wanted to hear how staying with the old pesticide was the best idea because that's what they were comfortable with. But Monte had just shown that the best decision based on evidence would be to go with the new pesticide. He knew there were concerns with the new product being delayed for release because it was still in development. But the old product might get banned due to health concerns! Shouldn't that be reason enough? He shook his head as he leaned back and waited for the comments to begin. Value ($ Millions) Sales High (0.64) 1.35 No Delay (0.6) Sales Low (0.36) 0.85 New Product EV = 1.10 Sales High (0.57) 1.20 Delay (0.4) Sales Low (0.43) 0.75 Ban (0.3) Current Product EV=0.76 No Ban (0.7) 0.20 1.00 Cengage Learning